Crude: 05/24/2017

2017-05-24_19-45-06

The chart above presents my phasing analysis on the Crude oil market. It seems evident that we are under a similar cyclical circumstance as we were in the early 2000s prior to the parabolic rise witnessed in the prices of Crude. I have absolute confidence in this interpretation since the outlook on all other commodity markets and commodity currencies takes us back to the same period from an 18 year cycle perspective. From a 54 year cycle perspective we are under a similar cyclical circumstance as we were in the early 1970s prior to the oil embargo that occurred on the US by Saudi Arabia. This gives us reason to believe that the petrodollar deal is at stake in the upcoming trend cycle to the upside. I have a more detailed hypothesis on what is likely to occur in the middle east but I am afraid I am unable to share it for security reasons, for those that are interested kindly contact me personally. The similarities of the recent advance since the 2016 low and the one witnessed in the early 2000s is astounding. In fact, the correlation coefficient is north of 87% once the appropriate scale is used. It is important to note however that the advance that we are on the verge of embarking is going to dwarf the advance that occurred earlier this century which was a result of the Iraq war. This tells us two things, the first is that we are on the verge of an oil crisis and the second is that we are on a verge of a significant geopolitical crisis since the prices of oil simply reflect the geopolitical environment. If one looks back at any significant rise in oil prices one is sure to find a war or some sort of conflict behind such a rise. Considering that we are on verge of a trend cycle in commodities (second 18 year within the 54 year) then we can expect the upcoming crisis to dwarf that of the year 2000s by many magnitudes from a geopolitical perspective. Not only are we are in a trend cycle, but if one steps back and takes a look at the position we are in in terms of the 162 year cycle one will realize that we are currently in the second 54 year cycle which is in itself another trend cycle. This suggests that we are on the verge of a trend of a trend cycle or what Ellioticians would call the third of the third wave. All I can say is buckle your seat belt since it is likely to be one hell of a ride.

Ahmed

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