Soybeans: 06/12/2017

2017-06-12_12-51-23

Soybeans has certainly been a tough cookie considering its choppy and volatile nature. I have finally come to a conclusion about the future course of this commodity. Unfortunately I can’t go larger than the 9 year cycle considering the difficulty of phasing the preceding price history. I see Soybeans putting in a 9 year cycle low or a pie cycle low at any time from here to AUG/SEP of this year. After such a trough is realized we are likely to embark on an advance similar to that which was witnessed off of the 18 year cycle low in 2006 prior to the 08 crash. This advance should push higher going into APR of 2019 before any correction of significance occurs. Let us take a look at the projection with approximate dates of cycle highs/lows.

2017-06-12_12-57-25

The projection below is the most reliable one I can come up with in terms of the beans market. The current correlation is north of 70% and is likely to continue going further. Once the 9 year cycle lows are realized this market is likely to make new all time highs by or before APR of 2019 after which this market is projected to consolidate for awhile there after. Speculators should wait for the market to commit to them before committing to the market. What I mean by that is a break of a 54 month FLD or a break of the 18 month VTL both of which are presented on the chart below.

2017-06-12_12-52-05

Considering that we are in the final 54 month cycle within the current 9 year wave, confirmation of a trough of the 54 month duration would be enough to warrant a conclusion of a trough of the 9 year wave. The dashed VTL above is that of the 18 month wave a break of which would confirm a turn of the 54 month wave. Also above is the 54 month FLD a break of which would also confirm a turn of the 54 month wave both of which will confirm a turn of the 9 year wave. Once the 9 year cycle trough is confirmed speculators can feel confident about the projection line presented previously and can continue to add to longs on pull backs going into the projected peak in 2019.

Ahmed

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *