The CRB index has certainly been a tough nut to crack until I viewed it with fresh eyes. The structure is an absolute beauty and pleasant to the trained eye. This market is currently putting in an 18 year cycle trough at the time of writing. Bear in mind that this is the new CRB rather than the old one and my longer range forecasts of us being on the verge of a trend cycle is based on the old one rather than the new one. I believe that the 18 year cycle trough that is about to be realized will mark the end of the first 18 year wave within the larger Kondratieff cycle. The trough should occur any time now if not already and this market will shoot higher in ways many thought unimaginable. Commodity speculators are likely to be the new ones with a Bugatti and a Lamborghini rather than those currently working in Finance. I believe it was Jim Rogers who said “Farmers are going to be driving Lamborghinis in the near future” and I agree with him 100% he then continued by advising the anchor that was interviewing him to learn how to drive a tractor. Long story short, commodities are setting the stage for a huge and explosive move to the upside in the upcoming environment.
Considering that we are in the final 54 month wave of the current 18 year wave a breach of the 54 month FLD would be significant enough to warrant long positions on this index’s constituents. My next journey would be to price the individual commodities against the CRB and see which are likely to outperform the general index in a relative strength analysis as would be done with individual stocks against the general index. The reason for choosing to do that in the commodity market rather than the stock market is because I would rather be driving a Lambo than end up in bankruptcy. The reason why I chose the 54 month FLD is because it is extremely close to price, quite a bit closer than the 54 month VTL hence I will stick to this FLD as an action signal to go long commodities with a high degree of confidence. In terms of targets, I can only assume that new all time highs in this market will be realized within the next three years.
Thanks for your time