EURUSD: 05/21/2017


The chart above presents my Elliott wave interpretation on the EURUSD currency pair. I believe the decline from the 2008 high was a three wave decline that has proven to be complete at the time of writing. The reason why I believe the decline is complete is due to the break of the 2-4 trendline of the wave C decline. This break is certainly confirmation enough to merit a conclusion that the entire decline from the 2008 high is complete and new all time highs in the EURUSD can be expected. I was introduced into the financial markets during this choppy corrective pull back in the EUR which makes this correction quite a special one for me probably for the rest of my career as an analyst/trader. I was fortunate enough to catch the high in May of 2011 and the high in May of 2014 and quite fortunate enough to call the recent lows that were witnessed as per my previous post on the EURUSD to subscribers. I have mentioned plenty of times before that we have put in an 18 year cycle low and the moves on the EURUSD can be expected to last for many years into the future. In fact, it is likely to be similar to the advance witnessed at the outset of currency trading in the early 1970s from an amplitude and a translation perspective. Let us now take a look at the projection we have on the EURUSD based on the position we happen to be in from an 18 year cycle perspective.


The projection visible above is the projection of the 18 month wave going forward. It seems evident that the thrust higher is likely to be abrupt which is likely to occur due to a dollar crises rather than a brighter Euro zone. This 18 month wave is likely to break the 0-B trendline that will be the ultimate confirmation that the corrective decline has completed from an Elliott wave perspective. It is important to note that the 2001 lows were the lows of the Kondratieff cycle and we are currently on the verge of a trend cycle higher that should experience more right translation than the preceding 18 year cycle. Such an explosive move on the EURUSD would most likely result in a deeper plunge in European bourses due to a stronger currency. It is quite exciting to be trading in such times and let us hope the powers at be are able to handle the upcoming environment smoothly.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *