GBPUSD: 04/18/2017


The chart above presents my phasing on a weekly chart of the GBPUSD currency pair. It seems evident that we have recently put in a 40 week cycle trough earlier this year and we are currently heading higher. The sub-structure in this currency pair is certainly ideal and its harmonic relationships are almost precise. We are currently in the final 40 week cycle prior to putting in an 18 year cycle low that should see the GBPUSD embark on a significant advance. I am of the camp that thinks that the EUR is likely to outperform the GBP sterling in the long run for the simple reason that we have taken out the Kondratieff cycle low in terms of the GBP which suggests that sigma El (the sum of action of all larger cycles) is negative in the pound unlike the EUR. In any case we are anticipating a significant move higher even from a shorter term perspective as the projection presented below suggests.


The projection that you see above takes into context the position within the 18 year cycle which suggests that this market is likely heading north from a short term perspective. It is certainly time to be positioning ourselves long in this currency pair for a quick scalp higher from a cyclical perspective. As you progress through this report you will certainly understand the rationale behind such a short term call. It is important to note that the GBPUSD is one 40 week cycle out of phase with the EURUSD which is an anomaly I will attempt to explain as I continue my research. I think it is ideal to be longing the GBP against the JPY as presented on my recent analysis of that currency pair since the USDJPY seems to be bullish. I did talk about the EURJPY as well being a good long candidate during the upcoming environment.

GBP40week FLD

The chart above presents a 40 week FLD of the GBPUSD currency pair. It seems evident that the FLD was taken out to the upside suggesting that we must have seen a 40 week trough as was presented earlier in this post. It is important to emphasize that under the SCC of the 18 year wave the GBP formed a straddle to the right suggesting that the downward pressure on the GBP sterling at this current point in time in very limited.


Finally I would like to look at the phasing of the short term cycles which is presented above. The sub-structure, harmonicity and synchronicity is certainly a beauty in this particular pair. It seems evident that we are rallying off of a 10 week cycle low that is likely to continue going forward based on the projection specified earlier. In terms of targets we have a deep crab harmonic pattern in formation which will be complete at approximately 1.3 which is also a psychological level. This gives us reason to believe that this market has at least a 500 pip upside potential from current levels.

GBPUSD - Primary Analysis - Apr-18 1228 PM (1 day)

Kind Regards,

Ahmed Farghaly

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