The chart above presents my phasing analysis on the NZDUSD. The pattern is quite clear from a cyclical perspective. It seems evident that we are on the verge of an 18 year cycle trough at the time of writing. The USD bear setup certainly proved worthwhile in terms of the EUR in the recent environment. The move on the EUR has been fully anticipated in recent posts to subscribers. I would be looking for the current USD weakness to continue and push through the commodity currencies soon which are likely to witness a significant rise against the USD. Considering that most commodities have put in their 18 year cycle trough, we would naturally be looking for the equity market to put in its 18 year cycle peak. My line in the sand is the 20 week VTL spoken of on one of my previous videos on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It is important to note however that although the commodity currencies are likely to stage an advance going forward the EUR is likely to outperform them since the EURNZD has put in a 54 year cycle trough recently.
Considering that we are in the final 18 month wave of the current 18 year cycle, a break of the 18 month FLD to the upside would suggest that the 18 year cycle trough has been realized. I am looking for such a break to occurwithin several weeks. Such a break would give me confidence to load up on the Kiwi against the USD for the next few years. It is important to note however that my favorite currency in the upcoming environment is the Swiss franc rather than the Kiwi, Ozzy or the EUR. I do find it important, however, to diversify my USD short positions across several currencies which is the primary reason I am looking into the NZDUSD currency pair as a potential position trade going forward.